Manhattan real estate ended 2024 with real momentum: signed contracts rose 22% year over year in the fourth quarter, the largest annual increase in contract activity in three years, while closed sales rose approximately 3%. Below, I cover what drove the surge, what happened to prices and inventory, and how much has changed in the five years since January 2020.
Why did Manhattan contracts jump 22% in Q4 2024?
Signed contracts rose 22% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2024 because lower prices, a stronger economy and more consumer confidence after the election brought buyers back. Closed sales increased by approximately 3% over the same period.
Signed contracts are the deals that close in the following quarter, so the jump pointed to a busier start to 2025. It was the largest annual increase in contract activity in three years, and it shows how differently the year ended than it began.
What was the median Manhattan apartment price in Q4 2024?
The median price in Manhattan fell 4% to $1,100,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024, the lowest fourth-quarter figure in five years. The average price per square foot declined 2% to $1,811, its seventh straight quarterly decline.
The rise in signed contracts coincided with those price declines. Buyers who had been waiting found lower prices than they had seen in years.
Did co-ops or condos hold their value better in Q4 2024?
Co-ops held their value better: the average price per square foot for co-ops rose 5% to $1,247, while the average for condos dropped 10% to $1,780.
Some co-op sales above $2,000 per square foot along prime corridors such as Central Park West, Fifth Avenue and Park Avenue lifted the co-op figure. On the condo side, resales of new and newer developments tapered off during the quarter.
| Measure | Q4 2024 | Change from Q4 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Signed contracts | Not reported | +22% |
| Closed sales | Not reported | About +3% |
| Median price | $1,100,000 | -4% |
| Average price per square foot | $1,811 | -2% |
| Co-op average price per square foot | $1,247 | +5% |
| Condo average price per square foot | $1,780 | -10% |
| Active listings | 5,900 | -8% |
| New listings in the quarter | 3,200 | -6% |
How low did Manhattan inventory fall in Q4 2024?
Manhattan inventory fell 8% year over year to 5,900 active listings, the lowest number since early 2017. Only 3,200 new listings came on the market in the fourth quarter, a drop of 6% from the year before.
How much has changed in the five years since January 2020?
A lot: in the five years since January 2020, the Dow rose around 55%, the S&P 500 around 90% and U.S. GDP about 35%, according to a list shared by Compass’ Chief Evangelical Officer. Five years ago in January, we had just started hearing the rumblings of COVID, and many people, myself included, thought it wouldn’t affect them. While we have mostly recovered, some lingering scars remain.
| Measure | January 2020 | January 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 28,868 | Over 42,000 | Up around 55%, about 8.8% a year compounded |
| S&P 500 | 3,257 | Nearly 6,000 | Up around 90%, 13% a year compounded |
| U.S. GDP | $21.3 trillion | Just over $29 trillion | Up about 35%, 6% a year compounded |
| U.S. debt | $22.7 trillion | Over $36 trillion | Up 45% |
| GDP per capita | $65,500 | Over $86,000 | Up over 31%, 4% a year compounded |
| Oil, per barrel | $63 | Slightly over $70 | Up 11%, about 2.2% a year compounded |
The list goes beyond markets. Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris was a charred wreckage five years ago, and today it is fully rebuilt and magnificent. Five years ago, AI was barely mentioned. Today, it’s everywhere.
What did Q4 2024 tell me about the year ahead?
The fourth quarter reminded me how much can change in a single year: 2024 ended quite differently than it began, with buyers returning in force after the election. Lower prices, a stronger economy and more consumer confidence all arrived in the same quarter.
Because signed contracts close in the following quarter, that 22% jump carried straight into the first months of 2025. With inventory at its lowest level since early 2017, buyers who wanted the best homes had fewer choices, and well-run co-ops on the prime avenues proved their value.
Watch my take on the Manhattan market in this video.
If you are thinking about buying or selling in Manhattan, request a confidential consultation and I will walk you through what the latest numbers mean for your home. For the newest edition, read the Q3 2026 Franco Report, and sign up for The Franco Report newsletter to get each quarter first.
About the author. Michael J. Franco is a top producing broker at Compass with more than 20 years of experience as a broker, attorney, and investor. The Wall Street Journal and Real Trends ranked him number 13 in Manhattan and number 100 in the United States.
This post is for general information and is not financial, legal, or tax advice. Compass is a licensed real estate broker. Equal Housing Opportunity.
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